If it emerges and does not see its shadow because the weather is cloudy, winter will soon end. By cons, if it sees its shadow because the weather is bright and clear, she will be frightened and took refuge in its hole again, and winter will continue for six weeks.
Origin
The traditions relating to the awakening of animals known as "sleepers" at Candlemas are of European origin. In different countries and latitudes, the animal attached to the folklore changes. According to Paul Sebillot that bear the majority of these traditions is attached. In the Pyrenees, in Bigorre, was said to Candlemas the animal out of the cave where he hibernated, patrolling the skies, and if it was released, returned to his house for forty days.
In the Limousin, it is the wolf, the otter in Lorraine, Ireland hedgehog, etc.. Taking up the Americas by emigrants, the tradition has focused on the most common hibernating animal, the groundhog.
An entry in the diary of James Morris, trader Berks County in Pennsylvania, February 5, 1841 mentions elsewhere: "Last Tuesday was the 2nd Candlemas, the day according to the German tradition of the groundhog casts a blow an eye out of its burrow. If she sees her shadow, she returned to bed for six weeks longer, but if the day is cloudy she stays outside for the rest of the winter will be mild. "
One possible explanation of the legend
In temperate countries of the northern hemisphere, spring begins on the equinox was 20 or March 21 depending on the year. Before 1582, the Julian calendar had moved away from that date so that the equinox fell on March 16, which is exactly six weeks after February 2.
When changing to the Gregorian calendar to correct this drift, there was confusion in the minds of people on the arrival of spring: some believing that spring was March 16 and 21 seconds. The groundhog, or any other hibernators, becoming a referee.
Physical explanation
In early February, the temperate northern hemisphere are found in a zonal atmospheric circulation. This means that there are cold air outbreaks from the north, alternating with hot incursions from the south.
A clear sky and clear means that the region is covered by arctic high pressure system, so the air is very cold and winter looks set to stay. By cons, a cloudy day means the passage leading to a depression of the gentle breezes of the south which suggests an early end of this season.
In fact, the spring is unlikely to arrive before the scheduled date and time it is Feb. 2 is purely coincidental. In addition, any dictum from Europe has little chance to apply to a place that has a different climate as North America. Finally, such a prediction has very little chance of being correct on an entire continent that spans five time zones and 30 degrees latitude.
Source: http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jour_de_la_marmotte
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